Warning This Manual Cannot Be Directly Applied to Japanese Electoral Campaigns
For more details, please see notes.
Step One: Research#
Every campaign is different and unique. While certain basic principles can be applied to each campaign, it is important to have a complete understanding of the particular situation and the conditions in which your campaign will be waged. At some point in almost every campaign, someone says "it is different here" or "you're not taking into account our particular situation". "Step One: Research" is where you start and where you take into account the differences and peculiarities of each campaign. It is here that you have the chance to demonstrate just how different your situation really is.
The first step in developing a winning strategy must begin with a realistic assessment of the political landscape in which you will be running. It is true that you can never know everything about your district, your opponents, and the voters. However, by using your time wisely and setting clear priorities, you will be able to compile the kind of information you need to develop a good strategy and be prepared for most events in the coming campaign. There are a number of factors that should be understood as completely as possible as you prepare to write a campaign plan:
What is the type of election and what are the rules?
What are the characteristics of the district?
What are the characteristics of the voters?
What has happened in past elections?
What are the main factors affecting this election?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of your candidate?
What are the strengths and weaknesses of all the viable opponents?
Each of these points can be expanded into many more questions (as shown below and in Appendix B). You will know the answers to some questions immediately and others will require some research. In some cases, you may have to take an educated guess about the answer to a particular question, but you should do this only as a last resort.
It is important for the campaign team to take some time to research the answers to as many of these questions as possible. If you have a large, reliable campaign team, you may want to assign different sections to different members of the team. They can then report their findings to the campaign manager who will be responsible for writing the final campaign plan.
Either alone or as a team, it is important that you set and stick to a time limit for doing the research. There will always be more information you can gather, but this will only delay the use of the information you already have in developing your strategy.
In some cases, this type of research may benefit from more scientific methods of obtaining the data, such as political polling or focus groups. You will need to determine what resources are available to you and whether they are worth the expense of time and/or money. In small local races, paying for a poll could cost as much as the whole campaign and therefore should not be considered. On a larger campaign where thousands of dollars will be spent on advertising, you would be foolish not to spend a fraction of that amount to see if the message of that advertising will work.
Appendix B provides a detailed list of the following questions. You are encouraged to answer all of these questions carefully. While a few particular questions may not apply to your race, the complete list is designed to make you think about what is needed to develop a clear strategy.
Election Rules#
It is important to first determine the type of election in which you will be running and what will be the rules of the election. Much of the basic strategy depends on this information. Is this a legislative office you are seeking or an executive office? Do you need a majority of the votes to win or a plurality? Will there be a runoff election? You should definitely research the laws and if they are complicated, you may want to ask your political party or a lawyer to draft a memo outlining the most important points. Missing a deadline or violating some part of the law could end your campaign before it has even begun.
The District#
Once you have determined the basic election rules, you should start to gather as much information on the district and the voters as possible.
How large is the district in which you will be running?
What type of terrain will you have to cover as you campaign?
What type of transportation will you and the voters need to use?
How has the population of the district changed recently?
You need to understand the political landscape in which you will be operating.
Who are the important political players in the area?
How strong are the various political parties in the area?
Who are the civic and business leaders that can influence the campaign?
Winning the support of a particularly influential leader in the community can often make the campaign much easier.
You also must understand how voters get their information.
What are the local media outlets?
Who are the reporters and what are their deadlines?
How will the election be covered and how does the press view the various candidates?
To develop a comprehensive press strategy, it is important to have as much information on the media as possible.
The Voters#
You will need to break the voters in your district into manageable groups. This is the basis you will later use to develop a strategy for targeting particular voters. The following are some of the questions you may want to consider.
Is there a voter file or accurate list of all possible voters available to the campaign?
What support is there for various political parties?
What is the demographic composition of the voters?
For example, what are the income levels, education levels, professions, ethnic backgrounds, religious backgrounds, age, gender, etc.?
Where do people work, shop, and play?
What is the geographic breakdown of the voters?
What percentage or how many people live in the city, in the rural areas, or in small villages?
Do the voters live in single-family homes or apartments?
How would you describe your supporters and those voters you hope to persuade?
Voters with similar characteristics may have similar interests and may tend to vote the same way. Seniors will be less interested in schools and more interested in pensions, while young mothers will be more interested in schools and less interested in pensions. By determining how many senior citizens there are and how many young mothers there are, you will be better able to target your message to groups that matter to your success.
Past Elections#
Often you can gain valuable information about this election by looking at information from past elections.
Who ran for this position in your district in past elections and what were the results?
How many voters turned out for similar elections in the past?
How many votes were needed to win?
You may be able to use this type of information to predict the turnout and baseline levels of support in this election.
How did candidates with similar backgrounds and messages fare in past elections?
You will want this type of information later when you determine what worked for them and what you will have to do differently to do better than they did.
This Election#
Next, you should look at the factors that will affect this election, namely the various issues that concern voters and other political campaigns which are being waged in the area.
What local, regional, or national issues are important to voters?
What will motivate voters to go to the polls?
How would you describe the voter mood?
What other races will be on the same ballot?
Will candidates in other races help or hurt your campaign?
Is there the opportunity to work with other campaigns in a coordinated manner?
What effect will other campaigns have on the election?
Your relationship with your party and other candidates on the same ticket will affect your strategy. Your campaign's message should complement or at least not contradict the other messages.
Our Candidate#
The most important factor in your election will be the candidate. During your strategic planning session, you should honestly and candidly judge the strengths and weaknesses of your candidate. As you do this exercise, you should also look at your candidate from the point of view of your opponent. What you may view as a fresh new face with new ideas, your opponent may view as a lack of experience.
You may want to organize your assessment into various sections such as the candidate's childhood, education, work history, immediate family, and past political positions. It is important to look for both strengths and weaknesses in all of these areas. By finding weaknesses early, the campaign will be better prepared to deal with them and respond to charges that may come up later in the campaign. Too many candidates have lost because they refused to deal with past mistakes and were caught off guard when their opponents painted the picture of their mistakes in a very unflattering light.
Viable Opponents#
Once you have determined your own candidate's strengths and weaknesses, the next logical step is to repeat the process for your opponents'. If you are facing several opponents, you should determine which are your strongest competitors for the loyalty of voters you hope to attract. Again, you can organize your assessment into various sections and look for both strengths and weaknesses.
Your opponents will not be forthcoming with information about themselves. You will probably need to do some digging to find reasons for voters to vote against them and for your candidate.
Too often candidates and campaigns view opposition research as looking for the one scandal that will finish off their opponent's campaign. This may happen, but more often what you find are patterns of behavior that you can use to persuade voters to either vote against your opponent or for you. You will use this to create a contrast between your candidate and campaign and your opponents' campaign when you develop your message but this process is the basis for finding that contrast.
The other mistake campaigns often make is saying that they do not want to wage a negative campaign. Researching your opponent and waging a negative campaign are two entirely different things. By not taking the time and doing the hard work of opposition research, you forfeit the ability to be prepared for what your opponent will say and do and to build the contrast between yourself and your opponent.
As you gather your opposition research, you must be extremely well organized: list the sources of your documentation and have a system in place that will allow you to quickly access the information. It will do no good to know something and not be able to provide backup of the information. All of this research should be gathered together in a binder for easy referral and referenced for easy tracking. Being meticulous and organized now will save a lot of time and energy later.
Worksheet 1: Assessing the Political Landscape#
Set aside a few hours for you and your campaign team to do a comprehensive analysis of the political landscape in which your campaign will be operating. Everyone should have a copy of the questionnaire in "Appendix B: Campaign Research Questions".
Answer as many of the questions as possible. If you do not have the answers immediately available, determine where the information can be found and who will be responsible for gathering it. It is important to set a deadline for finding the information. You may want to have a second meeting of the campaign team in a week's time to bring together all the information.
Once you have compiled all the research, create a notebook that will provide the details in an organized fashion and draft a summary of the information that will be used as the basis for your strategy and the written campaign plan.