Warning This Manual Cannot Be Directly Applied to Japanese Electoral Campaigns

For more details, please see notes.

Step Two: Setting a Goal#

The ultimate goal of almost every political campaign is to win elected office. What you need to do here is determine what must be done to achieve that victory. Too often campaigns forget to calculate how many votes will be needed to guarantee victory and determining where these votes will come from. They then spend their precious resources of time, money, and people trying to talk to the whole population instead of the much fewer voters they will need to win. Here you will reduce the number of voters with whom you need to communicate to a much more manageable size. As part of your research, you should determine the total population of your district, the total number of voters, the expected votes cast, the number of votes needed to win, and the number of households in which these voters live.

Some of the answers that are needed here require you to look into the future and make some educated guesses. Use your best judgment and the information you have found from past elections.

What Is the Total Population of the District?#

"Total population" is all the people who live in your district. Considering children too young to vote and people not registered in the district, this number should be larger than the total number of voters.

What Is the Total Number of Voters?#

"Total number of voters" is all the voters in the district who are eligible to vote and can possibly vote in this election.

What Is the Expected Turnout?#

"Expected turnout" is the expected votes cast in this election. Not every voter will vote. Often you can determine how many voters will vote by looking at past similar elections. If there was 35% turnout in the last city election and there are no added factors this time to change the situation, you might figure that about 35% would vote in the city election this time. If on the other hand, there was a 55% turnout in the presidential election and this time the city election is combined with the presidential election, you may want to estimate that 55% will turn out this time.

How Many Votes Are Needed to Win?#

This is a very speculative number. What you are looking for is the total number of votes needed to guarantee victory in your race. If you need a majority of the votes to win, this would be 50% of turnout plus one vote. In many cases, you only need a plurality of the votes cast, or more votes for your candidate than any other candidate in the race receives. In the case of multi-candidate races, you may be able to win with 35%, 30%, 25%, or less of the vote. It is important to convert this percentage to a real number. How many actual votes will guarantee your victory? You should be conservative and err on the side of too many votes rather than too few.

How Many Households Do These Voters Live in?#

You can reduce this group yet again. On average, let us say that there are two voters per household. Some families may have three or four voters living in the same house. Some voters may be single and live alone. Now, if you think that a husband and wife are likely to vote the same way, you can often assume that if you talk to one member of the family, then you can expect to get the second vote. So, how many households will you need to communicate with to receive the number of votes needed to win?

Bringing It All Together#

How does all this come together? Let's say that your district has a population of 130,000 people. Of this population, there are 30,000 children below voting age and other non-registered voters, leaving a total number of 100,000 voters. In the last city election, there was 50% turnout of voters, or 50,000 votes cast. You assume it will be the same this time. In a multi-candidate race for city council, the winning candidate received 34% of the vote, or 17,000 votes cast. If you figure an average of two voters per household, this would come to 8,500 households.

Now, you cannot assume that every voter you talk with will be persuaded to vote for you. So, you should figure on communicating with a larger number of voters in order to receive the votes from 17,000 voters or 8,500 households. Suppose you persuade seven out of every 10 voters you communicate with to vote for you. You will need to talk to 25,000 voters or 13,000 households in order to be assured of support from 17,000 voters or 8,500 households (25,000 x 0.7 = 17,500 and 13,000 x 0.7 = 9,100).

It is still a lot easier to talk with and try to persuade 13,000 families than it is to talk to and try and persuade 100,000 people. This whole process is narrowing the group of people you need to persuade down to a much smaller size.

Worksheet 2: Setting a Campaign Goal#

Using your research information and your best judgment, answer the following questions and incorporate the answers into your written campaign plan:

How many people (not just voters) live in your district?
How many of these people are able to vote in this election?
What percentage of these voters do you expect to vote in this election?
How many expected voters is this in real numbers?
How many candidates will be running for this position?
How many of these candidates could be considered serious?
If the election were held today, what percentage of the vote do you think each candidate would receive?
What percentage of the votes cast will be needed to win?
How many votes cast in real numbers are needed to win?
On average, how many voters live in one household?
Do these voters living in the same household all tend to vote for the same candidate?
If they do tend to vote for the same candidate, how many households will you need to receive the support of to guarantee victory?
If you talk to ten average voters, how many can you persuade to vote for you?
How many households will you need to communicate with for your message to reach enough voters to achieve victory?